Upcoming economic data to watch

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Canadian data releases next week focus on housing, with September housing starts published on Tuesday, and the new house price index (August) published on Thursday.

The latter provides “input into replacement costs captured in CPI for a housing market connection to inflation,” says Derek Holt, vice-president and head of capital markets economics at Scotiabank, in a weekly economics report.

“Even for Toronto, the Teranet resale and the new house price index have not undergone any material correction to date,” says Holt, suggesting housing measures have yet to cool the market.

Toronto’s repeat-sales Teranet gauge is up 24% year over year, and has slipped only one month so far this year, in August.

Bank of Canada events to watch include Governor Poloz speaking with media on October 14. Besides today’s jobs report, no material data for monetary policy will be published before the governor’s sit-down with media.

U.S. awaits new Fed chair appointment
In the U.S., news of President Trump’s choice for Federal Reserve chair is eagerly awaited, though there’s no official date for the announcement.

“I’m not a believer that choosing a Fed chair matters quite as much as markets and some observers think it might,” says Holt, adding that no one individual can overrule the Fed’s mandate, which is set by Congress. Further, he says the differences between candidates are subtle.

On October 13, first tier U.S. data “will likely offer stronger, albeit temporary, growth and inflation signals, while earnings risk accelerates late in the week,” he says.

First tier data includes September numbers for CPI and retail sales. National Bank says in a weekly economics report that CPI may have increased on the back of increasing gas prices — a result of supply interruptions in U.S. refineries due to recent hurricanes. Along with gas stations’ receipts, strong auto sales are expected to boost retail sales, as consumers replace damaged vehicles.

Earnings season starts with financials, including BlackRock and JP Morgan, reporting next week.

International
The eurozone’s manufacturing sector gets an update with August’s industrial production figures. In China, the September update on trade balance will be released.

Transcontinental Media G.P.